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The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic...

The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

Kiesha Prem, PhD Yang Liu, PhD Timothy W Russell, PhD Adam J Kucharski, PhD Rosalind M Eggo, PhD Nicholas Davies, PhD et al. Open Access March 25, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6


Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus, emerged in the city of Wuhan, Hubei, China, in early December, 2019., Since then, the local and national governments have taken unprecedented measures in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak caused by SARS-CoV-2.Exit screening of passengers was shortly followed by travel restrictions in Wuhan on Jan 23, 2020, halting all means of unauthorised travel into and out of the city. Similar control measures were extended to the entire province of Hubei by Jan 26, 2020. Non-pharmaceutical physical distancing interventions, such as extended school closures and workplace distancing, were introduced to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan.Within the city, schools remained closed, Lunar New Year holidays were extended so that people stayed away from their workplaces, and the local government promoted physical distancing and encouraged residents to avoid crowded places. These measures greatly changed age-specific mixing patterns within the population in previous outbreak response efforts for other respiratory infectious diseases. Although travel restrictions undoubtedly had a role in reducing exportations of infections outside Wuhan and delayed the onset of outbreaks in other regions, changes in mixing patterns affected the trajectory of the outbreak within Wuhan itself. To estimate the effects of physical distancing measures on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic, we look at Wuhan, hoping to provide some insights for the rest of the world.


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