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A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19


Alex Arenas,1,  Wesley Cota,2, 3, 4 Jes´us G´omez-Garde˜nes,2, 4, y Sergio G´omez,1 Clara Granell,2, 4 Joan T. Matamalas,5 David Soriano,2, 4 and Benjamin Steinegger1

1Departament d’Enginyeria Inform`atica i Matem`atiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, E-43007 Tarragona, Spain 2Department of Condensed Matter Physics, University of Zaragoza, E-50009 Zaragoza, Spain 3Departamento de Fisica, Universidade Federal de Vic¸osa, 36570-900 Vic¸osa, Minas Gerais, Brazil 4GOTHAM Lab – BIFI, University of Zaragoza, E-50018 Zaragoza, Spain 5Harvard Medical School & Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston MA 02115, USA


An outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, that provokes the COVID-19 disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China on 31 December 2019. As of 20 March 2020, cases have been reported in 166 countries/regions, including cases of human-to-human transmission around the world. The proportions of this epidemics is probably one of the largest challenges faced by our interconnected modern societies. According to the current epidemiological reports, the large basic reproduction number, R0  2:3, number of secondary cases produced by an infected individual in a population of susceptible individuals, as well as an asymptomatic period (up to 14 days) in which infectious individuals are undetectable without further analysis, pave the way for a major crisis of the national health capacity systems.


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